Football Predictions

The Champions League Final 14th May 2012

As of the 1^st January 2012 Chelsea manager Roberto Di Matteo had the following managerial honours to his name – nothing, zero, nada. Bayern Munich manager, Jupp Heynckes as of the same date had a couple of Bundesliga titles, a Champions League (with that fairly successful team, Real Madrid) and a few other assorted medals, not to mention a trophy laden playing career including a World Cup and a European Championship. No contest? On paper yes. But after some of the results in this year’s crazy competition you wouldn’t bet against a Chelsea victory – and where you bet is where Unibet comes in. With over 150 pre match markets already on line, and many more to come, Unibet is the only place you would want to bet on the Champions League Final. If you factor in our terrific live offering and our 0-0 insurance offer (we refund all losing bets on correct score, HT/FT, first/last goal scorer if the game finishes 0-0), why would you possibly want to bet anywhere else?!
As they are playing in their home stadium, the Fußball Arena München (renamed from the Allianz Arena due to Uefa sponsorship rules), Bayern are understandable favourites at 1.80. However, Bayern’s recent record isn’t the strongest – they got thumped by Bundesliga winners Dortmund in the German Cup, and the possibility that the expectation of the home crowd may lead to nerves amongst the players, which is possibly why they are not an even shorter price. Chelsea are being backed by some at 4.65 to win on the night, and they have saved their best form for the cups this year with a FA Cup already in the trophy cabinet. However a lack of key players due to suspension and poor league form means they are rank outsiders. 4 of the last 11 Champions League Finals have finished in a draw after 90 minutes (including the last time Chelsea were in the final in 2008) and the draw is backable at 3.60. It is worth noting for all you live punters out there that the last 4 finals that have gone to extra time have also gone to penalties.
If history dictates how you bet, then a repeat of Bayern’s 2-0 defeat in the 2010 final is available at 24.00, whilst a repeat of the 1-1 draw in Chelsea’s only Champions League final in 2008, and in Bayern’s final in 2001 can be backed at 7.50.
There is also a shootout between Chelsea and Bayern’s master finishers in Didier Drogba and Mario Gomez. Gomez will finish joint top goal scorer in this season’s competition if he scores twice in the final and he is 3.25 to score more than Drogba with Drogba 5.75 to come out on top, with the draw at 1.67. Gomez is the favourite for first goal scorer at 4.60, with 5 Bayern players a lower price than any Chelsea player to score first, including ex-Chelsea star Arjen Robben at 6.00 and French wizard Franck Ribery at 7.50. If Chelsea players take your fancy then Drogba is 9.50 to score first, while penalty taker and scorer of Chelsea’s goal in the 2008 final Frank Lampard is available at odds of 12.50.
Chelsea scored first half injury time goals in both games in the Semi Finals against Barcelona, and either team to score in that period is 25.00. In the 2008 final Drogba was sent off, and for him to get a card of any colour is 4.00, whilst the opposite is 1.20, whilst Bayern ‘engine-roomer’ Bastian Schweinsteiger is 3.60 to pick up a card and 1.25 not to.

“The majority of the money, roughly 75% is being put on Bayern but a few customers are seeing the value in Chelsea” says Unibet’s Head of Sportsbook Erik Backlund.

“Personally I think this final has plenty of goals in it, so I would back 4 or more goals at odds of 3.50 if I had to pick a market to bet on.”

The last four return games of the round of sixteen of the Champions League are taking place this week. Bet365 specially offers an incentive for the match Chelsea London against SSC Naples. But we will have a look at all matches in a chronological order.

FC Bayern Munich against FC Basel

Munich is going to play against Basel. At the moment, Basel disposes of an outstanding shape. This should be known to everyone since the preliminary round at the latest. At first they made up a 3:0 against Manchester United and then they played 3:3 in the Theater of Dreams. The decisive match of Manchester United against FC Basel took place at the last match day of the preliminary round. FC Basel won this match in St. Jakob Park and they moved into the round of sixteen. The consequence for Manchester United was the third place within their group and therefore the knockout in the Champions League. That means that Manchester United is going to play its next match on Thursday within the Europe League. FC Basel won its last match in the Swiss league 0:2 against Grashoppers Zurich in Zurich, which means that they won their last match just as Bayern Munich, which won 7:1 in their own stadium against TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Does that mean that Munich is now ready for Basel? Or does that mean that there is nothing left anymore after Saturday? Odds on Munich are very low but since Munich has to win with a difference of one goal, handicap-1 can be applied very well. If Munich does not reach the next round, huge discussions will follow there. I assume that Munich is going to win in a very clear manner, even though I would grant the next round to Basel since they are the big surprise of this year´s Champions League season. A great deal will also be the 1.5 since I believe that Munich will score one goal and Basel is only going to reach the next round if they score a goal by themselves.

Inter Milan against Olympique Marseille

Today, in addition, there will be the match Inter Milan against Olympique Marseille. Since Marseille won the first leg against a flagging team from Milan, they are odds-on favourite on reaching the quarter final. Therefore my predictions turn out to be clear with Marseille reaching the next round with a 1.44 on Bet365.

Chelsea London against SSC Naples

Tomorrow (14 March 2012), Chelsea London is going to play against SSC Naples. London lost the first leg in Naples with 3:1. Of course, London is intending to straighten this result at Stamford Bridge but at the moment, Naples has the self-confidence to reach the next round. If Naples scores a goal, they will be nearly unreachable for London. Since they are an Italian team, it is said that they dispose of a very good defence. Although Naples possesses a strong offensive, they should make use of this Italian virtue. This season, Chelsea is not in a good shape and even within the English league they have to be careful not to lose the rank allowing the participation in the Champions League and being kicked out of the Top 4. In general, the English teams are flagging at the moment, which offers a huge chance for Naples even though this will not be good for the five-year-assessment of the Uefa from a German point of view. I think the result will be 2:1 and therefore my predictions will be 2.5 goals. You should bet on this match at Bet365 in any case since Bet365 offers a great incentive. If you bet using a sum up to £25 regardless which kind of bet, you will be given a free bet in the amount of your previous wager on a live bet at the match Chelsea-Naples. That means making proper predictions and maybe assuring them during the match or maybe making more profit.

Real Madrid against ZSKA Moscow

The last match of these four will take place in Madrid between Real Madrid and ZSKA Moscow. Here, Real Madrid should be odds-on favourite. But how often did teams fail when being the odds-on favourite? In Moscow the result was only a 1:1. But although Moscow scored the 1:1 not until the additional time, a 1:0 against Madrid within the regular time was also a great success. So if Moscow again disposes of a great defence and maybe scores a goal, they will have the possibility to reach the next round, which would mean the knockout for Madrid within the Champions League. Basel against Manchester offers a great example for such a result. Therefore I prefer not to bet on this match and, in addition, the odds are too low.

Free bets at Bet365 – Liverpool vs. Tottenham (for existing customers!)

On 06/02/2012 and Liverpool meet Tottenhom aueinander in the English Premiere League. Precisely for this game Bet365 now offers a free bet live. You bet before the game on the game you get a free bet from bet365 for the same use, but a maximum of 50 Pound. Here you can of course go with betting on the different types. The free bet can be used to protect and so during the game against the first bet is placed. Or one is confident before the game and uses the opportunity to increase its profits again. Bet365 offers for new customers in addition to even a 200 Pound new customer bonus.

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